Freight Economics
Truckload rates rise as capacity leaves faster than freight grows
· Source: FreightWaves
FreightWaves analysis argues that 2026 truckload-rate gains are primarily a supply-side correction. SONAR tender volume was about 9% higher than in October 2023 while tender rejections were up 268%, and ATRI's latest study put the 2025 average operating cost at a record $2.336 per mile.
Summary and practical context by RoadHouse Recruiting · Reviewed
Costs have outpaced the recovery in carrier margins
ATRI's 2025 operating-cost estimate rose 3.4% year over year, while non-fuel costs increased 4.2%. FreightWaves reported that Q3 2026 dry-van contract linehaul averaged $2.69 per mile, still below late-2021 levels.
Capacity loss matters more than a freight boom
The analysis says carrier exits and lower effective capacity explain rising rates despite only modest demand growth. That supports a supply-driven recovery thesis, not a broad claim that freight volumes are surging.
Benchmarks are not driver pay
Operating costs and linehaul rates describe fleet economics and freight pricing; they are not driver wages. Individual lane profitability still depends on utilization, deadhead, fuel, insurance, equipment and customer terms.
Understanding the update
This is FreightWaves market analysis using SONAR and ATRI data, not a forecast guarantee or a posted rate for every lane.
What it means for drivers and carriers
Carriers should model rate needs against their own cost and utilization data, while shippers should expect capacity—not volume alone—to influence bids.
Questions to consider
- How does the fleet's true cost per mile compare with published benchmarks?
- Which lanes show both high rejections and sustainable volume?
- How much deadhead and overhead are current bids covering?
Read the original reporting
This page provides an original summary and practical commentary. The linked source contains the full reporting. Older stories reflect information available on their published dates.
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