Freight Market
AFS projects record LTL and parcel costs as Q4 truckload pricing climbs
· Source: AFS Logistics
The Q4 TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index projects ground parcel costs at 43.3% above its January 2018 baseline, LTL rates per pound at 82.5% above baseline and truckload rates per mile at 23.4% above baseline. The forecast attributes the increases to fuel, capacity constraints and carrier pricing.
Summary and practical context by RoadHouse Recruiting · Reviewed
LTL pricing is projected to set another record
AFS expects the LTL rate-per-pound index to reach 82.5% above the January 2018 baseline in Q4, up 8.8% year over year, despite continued softness in underlying tonnage.
Parcel surcharges remain a major cost driver
The report projects ground parcel at 43.3% above baseline and express parcel at 20.3% above baseline. AFS said carrier changes to fuel-surcharge tables account for much of the long-term increase.
Truckload gains reflect tightening capacity more than demand
AFS projects the truckload rate-per-mile index at 23.4% above baseline, its highest since the first quarter of 2022. The report says capacity contraction and fuel costs are pushing prices higher while a clear demand catalyst remains absent.
Understanding the update
This is a quarterly index and forecast based on transportation spending data. It includes fuel surcharges and accessorials and is not interchangeable with DAT's fuel-excluded spot linehaul snapshot.
What it means for drivers and carriers
Shippers should stress-test Q4 budgets for fuel and accessorials, while carriers should separate genuine linehaul improvement from fuel-driven invoice growth.
Questions to consider
- How much of the rate increase is linehaul versus fuel and accessorials?
- Which parcel ZIP codes or shipment profiles trigger new surcharges?
- Do current carrier commitments cover peak-season volume?
Read the original reporting
This page provides an original summary and practical commentary. The linked source contains the full reporting. Older stories reflect information available on their published dates.
Read the source at AFS Logistics ↗ (opens in a new tab)